Revenue Probability
How the Probability Score Works
Aseyi calculates a revenue probability score: a percentage that reflects how likely you are to hit your annual goal based on your current trajectory and the time remaining in the year. The score accounts for your year-to-date revenue, the pace at which you've been generating it, and patterns in your system scores that are likely to affect your future performance. A high probability score doesn't guarantee you'll hit your target. It means that based on current patterns, you're on a trajectory that would produce the outcome. A low score doesn't mean you'll miss. It means a meaningful change in trajectory is likely needed.
What Moves the Probability Score
The probability score responds to two things: the revenue figures you log and the performance data generated by your business systems. A month of strong sales activity that produces above-trajectory revenue will push the score up. A month of low lead generation and declining Sales system scores will push it down, even before the revenue impact is visible in the numbers. This is part of what makes the probability score more useful than a simple year-to-date percentage: it incorporates leading indicators (system scores) alongside lagging ones (reported revenue), giving you an earlier signal of where the financial outcome is likely heading.
Using the Probability to Plan
When your revenue probability is lower than you'd like, it's a prompt to act rather than a prediction to accept. The question to ask is what would need to change in your system scores and activity levels for the trajectory to shift. That question can be taken to the AI Coach, explored through the Scenario Builder, or translated directly into higher-priority tasks in the systems most closely connected to revenue.